| JPAM Preview ▪ May 2012 |
| JPAM Preview is a newsletter that calls attention to forthcoming articles in JPAM. JPAM Preview provides brief summaries of content now available digitally in Early View, Wiley's online publication system. |
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| Feature Article Are Green Vehicles Worth The Extra Cost? The Case of Diesel-Electric Hybrid Technology for Urban Delivery Vehicles Kerry Krutilla and John D. Graham A central question for environmental policy is whether the long-term benefits of energy-saving technologies are sufficient to justify their short-term costs, and if so, whether financial incentives are needed to stimulate adoption. The fiscal effects of incentivizing new technologies, and the revenue effects of using the technology, are also policy relevant, given current fiscal constraints. This study evaluates the economic and fiscal effects of promoting diesel-electric hybrid technology in urban delivery vehicles, an application supported by U.S. policymakers. An economic model is used to simulate the conditional probability density functions of the net present values (NPVs) of diesel electric hybrids annually from 2012 to 2030. The NPV time paths, which reflect fuel price, environmental, and technology trends, show the expected dates that hybrids become economically viable, and allow an evaluation of the net benefits of hybrid technology as an investment over the entire simulation horizon. The NPV distributions are computed for five stakeholder classes, including transportation firms, parties benefiting from reduced externality damages, state and local governments, and the larger society. The analysis shows that hybrid technology investment does not appear to be justified from a societal perspective at a 7 percent discount rate, but the probability for positive net returns increases substantially at a 3 percent rate. Forthcoming in JPAM 31(3). Link to JPAM Early View. If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article. |
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| Feature Article Do 'Carrots' Work? Examining the Effectiveness of EPA's Compliance Assistance Program Sarah L. Stafford The role of compliance assistance in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's overall enforcement strategy has been quite variable over the past decade and a half, increasing in prominence under the Bush administration and now slated for significantly reduced funding under the Obama administration. While theoretical models and anecdotal evidence suggest that compliance assistance should play some role in a comprehensive enforcement strategy, to date there has been relatively little empirical evidence on the actual effectiveness of existing compliance assistance programs. To help inform the debate over the appropriate use of compliance assistance, this paper uses data on hazardous waste generators nationwide to assess the effect of federal compliance assistance programs in improving compliance with hazardous waste regulations. The paper also conducts a direct empirical analysis of the relationship between traditional enforcement tools and compliance assistance. The results show that federal compliance assistance efforts do increase compliance, but the evidence does not suggest any consistent relationship between traditional enforcement and compliance assistance. Also, while states do not appear to substitute federal compliance assistance for traditional enforcement, state compliance assistance programs do appear to decrease the likelihood of inspections among the smallest hazardous waste generators. Forthcoming in JPAM 31(3). Link to JPAM Early View. If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article. |
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| Feature Article Heat Waves, Droughts and Preferences for Environmental Policy Ann L. Owen, Emily Conover, Julio Videras, and Stephen Wu Using data from a new household survey on environmental attitudes, behaviors, and policy preferences, we find that current weather conditions affect preferences for environmental regulation. Individuals who have recently experienced extreme weather (heat waves or droughts) are more likely to support laws to protect the environment. We find evidence that the channel through which weather conditions affect policy preference is via perceptions of the importance of the issue of global warming. Furthermore, environmentalists and individuals who consult more sources of news are less likely to have their attitudes toward global warming changed by current weather conditions. These findings suggest that communication and education emphasizing consequences of climate change salient to the individual's circumstances may be the most effective in changing attitudes of those least likely to support proenvironment policy. In addition, the timing of policy introduction could influence its success. Forthcoming in JPAM 31(3). Link to JPAM Early View. If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article. |
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| Feature Article Environmental Justice and Green-Technology Adoption Paul Ong This paper presents an analysis of an environmental justice (EJ) program adopted by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) as a part of its regulation to phase out a toxic chemical used by dry cleaners. SCAQMD provided financial incentives to switch early and gave establishments in EJ neighborhoods priority in applying for grants. Despite this pro-EJ policy, available data show that dry cleaners in low-income, predominantly minority, and EJ-designated areas were less likely to be an early adopter of green technologies, and this finding holds even after accounting for firm and market characteristics. Dry cleaners in disadvantaged neighborhoods were also less likely to receive a grant to switch technology despite the district's effort to set aside half of the funding for applicants from EJ areas. Forthcoming in JPAM 31(3). Link to JPAM Early View. If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article. |
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| Special Symposium on Science Policy Subsidies for New Technologies and Knowledge Spillovers from Learning by Doing Gregory F. Nemet This study empirically examines a prominent justification for public subsidies of emerging technologies: that stimulating demand for them provides opportunities for learning by doing. Even if firms learn from their experience, subsidies are still second best to pricing negative externalities if firms can appropriate the benefits of learning. I construct a panel of electricity output from wind power projects, for a case involving $1 billion in public funds, to assess whether firms' performance benefited from the experience of other firms. I find evidence of learning by doing and knowledge spillovers. However, knowledge gained from experience shows both diminishing returns and depreciating effectiveness. Forthcoming in JPAM 31(3). Link to JPAM Early View. If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article. |
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| Special Symposium on Science Policy Permanent Visas and Temporary Jobs: Evidence from Postdoctoral Participation of Foreign PhDs in the United States Xiaohuan Lan About 75 percent of U.S.-trained, noncitizen PhDs in science and engineering work in the United States after graduation, and 54 percent of those who stay take postdoctoral positions. The probability of postdoctoral participation is substantially higher for temporary visa holders than for permanent visa holders because of visa-related restrictions in the U.S. labor market. To identify the causal effects of visa status on entry into a postdoctoral position, this paper uses a unique shock to visa status generated by the Chinese Student Protection Act of 1992. Eligibility for the act is used as an instrumental variable for visa status. Two-stage least-square estimates show that permanent visa holders are 24 percent less likely to take postdoctoral positions than temporary visa holders. The effects of a permanent visa vary considerably across research fields, but for most fields, it reduces postdoctoral participation significantly. Forthcoming in JPAM 31(3). Link to JPAM Early View. If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article. |
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| Point/Counterpoint – Special Issue on Science Policy Stem Cells, Science and Public Reasoning J. Benjamin Hurlbut and Jason Scott Robert These are interesting days in the scientific, social, and political debates about human embryonic stem cell research. Pluripotent stem cells-cells that can, in principle, give rise to the body's full range of cell types-were previously derivable only from human embryos that were destroyed in the process. Now, a variety of somatic cell types can be reprogrammed to a pluripotent state. Meanwhile, long-standing promises about the therapeutic potential of pluripotent stem cells are inching toward realization, as several early-phase clinical studies are underway. At the same time, despite presidential declarations in favor of expanding human embryonic stem cell research, the regulatory environment is as complex as ever. Scientifically, clinically, socially, and politically, the stem cell debates are far from over. Forthcoming in JPAM 31(3). Link to JPAM Early View. If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article. |
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| Point/Counterpoint – Special Issue on Science Policy Expand and Regularize Federal Funding for Human Pluripotent Stem Cell Research Jason Owen-Smith, Christopher Thomas Scott, and Jennifer B. McCormick Human embryonic stem cell (hESC) research has sparked incredible scientific and public excitement, as well as significant controversy. hESCs are pluripotent, which means, in theory, that they can be differentiated into any type of cell found in the human body. They evoke great enthusiasm about potential clinical applications. They are controversial because the method used to derive hESC lines destroys a 2- to 4-day-old human embryo. Research and discoveries using human pluripotent stem cells (hPSCs) contribute to our fundamental understanding of biology and are potentially invaluable sources of new treatments for some of our most devastating diseases and injuries. Here, we argue that federal funding for all hPSC research should be regularized and expanded. First, the volume of funding for hPSC research should be increased. Second, the range of cell lines and methods of derivation eligible for funding should be encouraged to grow. Finally, federal funding for hPSC research should be stabilized through unambiguous legislation allowing researchers to plan and execute their often technically challenging, uncertain research programs on firm institutional ground. Forthcoming in JPAM 31(3). Link to JPAM Early View. If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article. |
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| Point/Counterpoint – Special Issue on Science Policy Good Governance Connects Science and Society J. Benjamin Hurlbut and Jason Scott Robert Owen-Smith et al. answer the question about expanding funding for human pluripotent stem cell (hPSC) research decisively and emphatically. They conclude that the U.S. federal government should expand funding in volume and scope, and stabilize it through regularity. If the clear goal of policy should be to increase present and future activity within the hPSC research domain over the long term, the solutions are simple-and their recommendations are on target. This, however, is the right solution to the wrong problem. Forthcoming in JPAM 31(3). Link to JPAM Early View. If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article. |
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| Point/Counterpoint – Special Issue on Science Policy Democracy is Working Jason Owen-Smith, Christopher Thomas Scott, and Jennifer B. McCormick As contemporary students of science and science policy, it is hard to gainsay the easy abstractions of Hurlbut and Robert's commentary. "Good science is an achievement of a good society". We also share much common ground on the details. For instance, we endorse the majority of their thoughts with regard to the implications new iPSC technologies have for both science and policy. We are struck by the fact while both we and Hurlbut and Robert acknowledge similar scientific and clinical developments, the recent history of the field leads them to conclude that "The pipeline is a pipe dream" while we view the same developments as evidence of real movement toward admittedly and perhaps damagingly overoptimistic goals. In what follows, however, we choose not to dicker over the relative success or failure of the field because we concur with the idea that a flat cost-benefit analysis of the therapeutic and scientific return on public investments is an injustice to both science and democracy. Forthcoming in JPAM 31(3). Link to JPAM Early View. If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article. |
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| Methods for Policy Analysis Can Nonexperimental Estimates Replicate Estimates Based on Random Assignment in Evaluations of School Choice? A Within-Study Comparison Robert Bifulco The ability of nonexperimental estimators to match impact estimates derived from random assignment is examined using data from the evaluation of two interdistrict magnet schools. As in previous within-study comparisons, nonexperimental estimates differ from estimates based on random assignment when nonexperimental estimators are implemented without pretreatment measures of academic performance. With comparison groups consisting of students drawn from the same districts or districts with similar student body characteristics as the districts where treatment group students reside, using pretreatment test scores reduces the bias in nonexperimental methods between 64 and 96 percent. Adding pretreatment test scores does not achieve as much bias reduction when the comparison group consists of students drawn from districts with different student body characteristics than the treatment group students' districts. The results suggest that using pretreatment outcome measures and comparison groups that are geographically aligned with the treatment group greatly improves the performance of nonexperimental estimators. © 2012 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management. Forthcoming in JPAM 31(3). Link to JPAM Early View. If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article. |
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| Policy Retrospectives Innovation Inducement Prizes: Connecting Research to Policy Heidi Williams Innovation inducement prizes have been used for centuries. In the United States, a recent federal policy change-the America COMPETESReauthorization Act of 2010-clarified and simplified a path by which all federal agencies can offer innovation inducement prizes, thus intensifying interest in how government agencies can most effectively design and apply such prizes. This paper aims to review and synthesize the academic literature on innovation inducement prizes, to clarify what has been learned that is relevant to current policy discussions, and to highlight unresolved questions that would be fruitful areas for future academic research and policy experimentation. Relative to the existing literature, this paper aims to bridge two gaps. First, I synthesize the academic literature in this area with an eye toward drawing lessons for the types of innovation inducement prizes under consideration by federal agencies under the America COMPETESReauthorization Act. Second, I discuss the problem of how to evaluate the success or failure of innovation inducement prizes, arguing that careful empirical evaluations of innovation inducement prizes are needed in order to provide guidance to federal agencies (and others) on how to most effectively apply and design innovation inducement prizes. Forthcoming in JPAM 31(3). Link to JPAM Early View. If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article. |
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| Feature Article The Effect of Media on Charitable Giving and Volunteering: Evidence from the "Give Five" Campaign Barış K. Yörük Fundraising campaigns advertised via mass media are common. To what extent such campaigns affect charitable behavior is mostly unknown, however. Using giving and volunteering surveys conducted biennially from 1988 to 1996, I investigate the effect of a national fundraising campaign, "Give Five," on charitable giving and volunteering patterns. The widely advertised Give Five campaign was aimed to encourage people to give 5 percent of their income and volunteer 5 hours a week. After controlling for selection into being informed about the Give Five, I find that people who were informed about the campaign increased their weekly volunteering activity on average by almost half an hour, but their giving behavior was not significantly affected. I discuss the policy implications associated with this result and argue that although the Give Five campaign did not achieve its goal, its impact on volunteering was considerable. © 2012 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management. Forthcoming in JPAM 31(4). Link to JPAM Early View. If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article. |
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| Policy Retrospectives Natalist Policies in the United States Leonard M. Lopoo and Kerri M. Raissian This retrospective reviews the policies that affect the fertility of American women, both policies designed to alter fertility intentionally as well as those that change childbearing unintentionally. Becker's seminal work on the economics of fertility serves as the theoretical foundation for this literature. After describing Becker's economic model, we review the empirical literature on fertility responses to social welfare policies, tax policies, the mandated health care coverage of infertility treatments, abortion policies, and government-sponsored family planning services. We also address several Supreme Court cases that have played an important role in the interpretation of these policies. Where relevant, this retrospective describes the distributional effects of these natalist policies. We also discuss the limitations of this literature and identify important gaps. Unlike most developed countries that have created strategies to increase fertility to support their ageing population, the United States spends considerably less time and thought on this issue. Our reading of the literature suggests that we have many public policies that have affected and continue to influence the fertility choices made by families in the United States and that this is a topical area that deserves more attention in policy debates. Forthcoming in JPAM 31(4). Link to JPAM Early View. If you want to cite this article before it is in print, please use the DOI number listed with each article. |
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| Journal of Policy Analysis and Management is published by Wiley Periodicals on behalf of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management. Editor-in-Chief: Maureen Pirog ▪ Indiana University, School of Public and Environmental Affairs (and) University of Washington, Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs Managing Editors: Robert Kaestner ▪ University of Illinois at Chicago Christopher (Kitt) Carpenter ▪ University of California, Irvine | |
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